polymarket-trading

📊 Trading Strategy

• Multi-Source Signal Integration: Combines Polymarket order book data with real-time Binance market data to identify true mispricings
• Dual Confidence Calculation: A/B testing framework comparing additive and Bayesian confidence methods

- Bayesian Method (new, optional): Proper probability theory with log-likelihood accumulation and market priors

- Additive Method (default): Directional voting with weighted signal aggregation

- Both methods always calculated and stored for performance comparison

• Edge Calculation: Directional voting system where external Binance signals validate Polymarket pricing (100% total weight):

- Price Momentum (30%): Velocity, acceleration, and RSI analysis over 15-minute lookback

- Polymarket Momentum (20%): Internal price action confirmation on the CLOB

- Order Flow (20%): Buy/sell pressure from Binance taker volume

- Cross-Exchange Divergence (20%): Detects when Polymarket pricing differs from Binance trends

- Volume-Weighted Momentum (10%): VWAP distance with volume quality filtering

• Dynamic Position Sizing: Confidence-based scaling with portfolio exposure limits

> 📖 For detailed strategy logic and signal breakdowns, see [docs/STRATEGY.md](docs/STRATEGY.md)

🛡️ Risk Management

• Confidence-Based Sizing: Position size scales with signal strength (configurable multiplier)
• Exit Plan: Places limit sell orders at 99 cents for near-guaranteed profitable exits
• 🛑 Midpoint Stop Loss: Primary safety net triggers at $0.30 midpoint price (configurable)
• 🔄 Hedged Reversal: Supports holding both sides during trend flips, clearing losers via stop loss
• 📈 Dynamic Scale-In: Adds to winning positions with confidence-weighted timing (up to 12m early for high-conviction trades)
• ⚡ Real-Time Monitoring: 1-second position checking cycle with WebSocket-powered price updates
• 🛡️ Balance Cross-Validation: Symbol-specific validation with fallback to position data for API reliability issues
• 📊 Settlement Auditing: Automated P&L verification against exchange data (logs discrepancies > $0.10)

🚀 Recent Improvements (Jan 2026)

• Bayesian Confidence Calculation (v0.4.4): New probabilistic method using log-likelihood accumulation with market priors. Both additive and Bayesian methods calculated for A/B testing. Toggle via BAYESIAN_CONFIDENCE setting.
• Enhanced Position Reports (v0.4.3): Clean, aligned format with directional emojis (📈📉) and status indicators showing position health at a glance
• Real-Time WebSocket Integration: Near-instant P&L and order fill updates via Polymarket's User Channel (fills/cancels) and Market Channel (midpoint prices)
• Batch API Optimization: Fetch midpoints for all positions in a single call, drastically reducing API overhead
• Enhanced Scale-In Logic: Confidence-weighted dynamic timing allows high-conviction winners to be scaled as early as 12 minutes before expiry
• Enhanced Balance Validation: Symbol-specific tolerance for API reliability issues (especially XRP), with cross-validation between balance and position data
• Reward Optimization: Exit plans automatically adjust prices to ensure they earn liquidity rewards via check_scoring API
• Intelligent Position Sync: Startup logic detects and "adopts" untracked exchange positions for automated management
• Settlement Auditing: Automated verification of local P&L against official closed-positions API data
• Modular Backend: Fully refactored src/trading/orders and src/data/market_data for better maintainability

> 💡 Tip: See [docs/RISK_PROFILES.md](docs/RISK_PROFILES.md) for pre-configured profiles (Conservative, Balanced, Aggressive, Ultra Aggressive)

💰 Automated Operations

• Auto-Claim: Automati