reference-class-forecasting
π―Skillfrom lyndonkl/claude
|Helps improve forecasting accuracy by systematically comparing a current project or scenario to similar historical reference classes to reduce bias and estimate more realistic outcomes.
Installation
npx skills add https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude --skill reference-class-forecastingSkill Details
Overview
# Claude Code Skills Collection
[](https://smithery.ai/skills?ns=lyndonkl&utm_source=github&utm_medium=badge)
> Claude Code Plugin Available β Install all 74 skills instantly with /plugin marketplace add lyndonkl/claude then /plugin install thinking-frameworks-skills
A comprehensive collection of production-ready skills for Claude Code, covering thinking frameworks, decision-making tools, research methods, design patterns, and specialized domains.
Overview
This repository contains 74 skills designed to enhance Claude Code's capabilities across strategic thinking, product development, research, experimentation, and creative problem-solving. Each skill includes:
- Structured workflows with step-by-step guidance
- Practical templates for immediate use
- Advanced methodologies for complex scenarios
- Evaluation rubrics with quality criteria and common failure modes
- Progressive disclosure (SKILL.md β template.md β methodology.md)
Table of Contents
- [Skills by Category](#skills-by-category)
- [π§ Strategic Thinking & Decision Making](#-strategic-thinking--decision-making)
- [π‘ Problem Solving & Analysis](#-problem-solving--analysis)
- [π¬ Research & Discovery](#-research--discovery)
- [π£οΈ Dialogue & Deliberation](#οΈ-dialogue--deliberation)
- [π Ideation & Creativity](#-ideation--creativity)
- [π Data & Modeling](#-data--modeling)
- [π· Geometric Deep Learning](#-geometric-deep-learning)
- [ποΈ Architecture & Design](#οΈ-architecture--design)
- [π Security & Risk](#-security--risk)
- [π Communication & Documentation](#-communication--documentation)
- [π¬ Scientific Writing](#-scientific-writing)
- [π― Estimation & Forecasting](#-estimation--forecasting)
- [πΌ Business & Product Management](#-business--product-management)
- [β±οΈ Productivity & Learning](#οΈ-productivity--learning)
- [π’ Organizational Design](#-organizational-design)
- [π‘οΈ Ethics & Evaluation](#οΈ-ethics--evaluation)
- [π³ Specialized Domains](#-specialized-domains)
- [π οΈ Skill Development & Meta-Tools](#οΈ-skill-development--meta-tools)
- [Installation](#installation)
- [Using Skills](#using-skills)
- [Skill Development Status](#skill-development-status)
- [Key Features](#key-features)
- [Contributing](#contributing)
- [Resources](#resources)
- [License](#license)
- [Acknowledgments](#acknowledgments)
Skills by Category
π§ Strategic Thinking & Decision Making
decision-matrix - Multi-criteria decision analysis with weighted scoring, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty handling for complex choices between 3-10 options.
bayesian-reasoning-calibration - Probabilistic reasoning with prior/posterior updates, Bayes theorem application, and calibration techniques for reducing overconfidence.
alignment-values-north-star - Strategic alignment framework connecting daily decisions to core values and long-term vision using north star metrics and principle mapping.
environmental-scanning-foresight - Anticipate change through PESTLE analysis, weak signal detection, scenario planning (2x2 matrix), cross-impact analysis, and signposts for early warning systems.
expected-value - Rational decision-making under uncertainty through probability-weighted outcomes (EV = Ξ£ pΓv). Covers scenario identification, probability estimation (base rates, triangulation, calibration), payoff quantification (NPV, non-monetary factors), decision trees (fold-back induction, optionality), expected utility for risk aversion, sensitivity analysis, and bias mitigation (overconfidence, sunk costs, tail risk neglect).
heuristics-and-checklists - Practical decision-making through mental shortcuts (heuristics) and systematic error prevention (checklists). Design fast & frugal heuristics (recognition, take-the-best, satisficing), create effective checklists (5-9 killer items, READ-DO vs DO-CONFIRM formats), validate rules empi
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