tenant-credit-analyst

Tenant credit analysis determines:

• Default probability: Likelihood tenant cannot pay rent
• Credit quality: Strength of tenant's financial position
• Security requirements: Deposits, guarantees, financial covenants needed
• Lease structuring: Appropriate rent escalations, term, and protections

Critical Insight: Rent is worthless if tenant defaults. Credit analysis is the first step in lease negotiation.

Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR)

Definition: Ability to cover rent from operating cash flow.

Formula:

```

DSCR = Net Operating Income (NOI) ÷ Annual Rent

Where:

NOI = EBITDA or Operating Cash Flow

Annual Rent = Base Rent + Estimated Operating Costs

```

Interpretation:

• DSCR > 2.0: Strong (2x coverage)
• DSCR 1.5-2.0: Acceptable (modest cushion)
• DSCR 1.2-1.5: Marginal (thin cushion, require security)
• DSCR < 1.2: High risk (insufficient cash flow, reject or require guarantees)

Minimum Standard: 1.25-1.50 for most industrial/office leases

Current Ratio

Definition: Ability to pay short-term obligations (including rent).

Formula:

```

Current Ratio = Current Assets ÷ Current Liabilities

```

Interpretation:

• >2.0: Strong liquidity
• 1.5-2.0: Adequate liquidity
• 1.0-1.5: Tight liquidity (monitor)
• <1.0: Liquidity crisis (reject)

Minimum Standard: 1.5 for most commercial tenants

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

Definition: Financial leverage and solvency.

Formula:

```

Debt-to-Equity = Total Liabilities ÷ Shareholders' Equity

```

Interpretation:

• <1.0: Conservative (low leverage)
• 1.0-2.0: Moderate (acceptable)
• 2.0-4.0: Aggressive (require guarantees)
• >4.0: Over-leveraged (high risk)

Context: Varies by industry (capital-intensive businesses have higher D/E)

Working Capital

Definition: Liquidity cushion to absorb short-term fluctuations.

Formula:

```

Working Capital = Current Assets - Current Liabilities

```

Interpretation:

• Positive and growing: Healthy
• Positive but declining: Warning sign
• Negative: Cash flow stress (reject unless guaranteed)

Rule of Thumb: Working capital should exceed 6-12 months of rent

Step 1: Obtain Financial Statements

Required documents:

• Balance Sheet: Assets, liabilities, equity
• Income Statement (P&L): Revenue, expenses, net income
• Cash Flow Statement: Operating, investing, financing cash flows
• Notes to Financial Statements: Accounting policies, contingencies

Preferred: Audited or review engagement (CPA prepared)

Acceptable: Notice to Reader (compilation)

Red Flag: Internally prepared (no CPA oversight)

Time Period: Most recent 2-3 years

Step 2: Calculate Key Ratios

Liquidity Ratios:

• Current Ratio
• Quick Ratio (excluding inventory)
• Working Capital

Leverage Ratios:

• Debt-to-Equity
• Total Liabilities ÷ Total Assets
• Interest Coverage Ratio

Profitability Ratios:

• Gross Margin
• Operating Margin
• Net Margin
• Return on Assets (ROA)
• Return on Equity (ROE)

Cash Flow Ratios:

• Operating Cash Flow ÷ Current Liabilities
• Free Cash Flow (after capex)
• DSCR (operating cash flow ÷ rent)

Step 3: Trend Analysis

Compare current year vs. prior years:

• Improving trends: Revenue growth, margin expansion, debt reduction
• Deteriorating trends: Revenue decline, margin compression, increasing leverage
• Red flags: Sudden changes, inconsistent performance

Step 4: Industry Benchmarking

Compare tenant's ratios to industry norms:

• Use industry reports (RMA, Statistics Canada, Dun & Bradstreet)
• Identify outliers (above/below industry standards)
• Adjust expectations for industry (e.g., grocery stores have low margins but high turnover)

Step 5: Qualitative Assessment

Beyond numbers:

• Management quality: Experience, track record
• Business model: Recurring revenue, customer concentration
• Industry dynamics: Growth vs. declining industry
• Competitive position: Market share, differentiation
• Litigation/contingencies: Lawsuits, regulatory issues

Step 6: Credit Scoring

Assign credit grade:

```

A+ / A / A-: Excellent credit (Fortune 500, strong financials)

B+ / B / B-: Good credit (solid financials, some leverage acceptable)

C+ / C / C-: Acceptable credit (requires standard security: deposit)

D+ / D / D-: Marginal credit (requires enhanced security: deposit + guarantee)

E: Poor credit (reject or require full guarantee + large deposit)

```

Step 7: Security Recommendations

Based on credit grade:

Grade A: Minimal security (1-2 months deposit or waive)

Grade B: Standard security (3 months deposit)

Grade C: Enhanced security (6 months deposit or partial guarantee)

Grade D: Strong security (12 months deposit + personal guarantee)

Grade E: Maximum security (full personal guarantee + 12 months deposit) or reject

Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR)

• Formula: NOI ÷ Annual Rent
• Minimum: 1.25-1.50
• Target: 2.0+

Current Ratio

• Formula: Current Assets ÷ Current Liabilities
• Minimum: 1.5
• Target: 2.0+

Debt-to-Equity

• Formula: Total Liabilities ÷ Equity
• Maximum: 2.0-3.0 (industry dependent)
• Target: <1.5

Revenue Growth

• Formula: (Current Year Revenue - Prior Year Revenue) ÷ Prior Year Revenue
• Red Flag: Negative growth for 2+ consecutive years
• Target: Positive and consistent

Operating Margin

• Formula: Operating Income ÷ Revenue
• Industry Dependent: Compare to industry norms
• Red Flag: Declining margins

Financial Statement Red Flags

Qualified Audit Opinion:

• Auditor expresses concerns or limitations
• Action: Request explanation, consider rejection

Going Concern Warning:

• Auditor questions ability to continue operations
• Action: Reject or require immediate guarantee

Negative Equity:

• Liabilities exceed assets
• Action: Reject (insolvent)

Negative Working Capital:

• Current liabilities exceed current assets
• Action: Require guarantee or large deposit

Declining Revenue (2+ years):

• Business is shrinking
• Action: Require enhanced security, shorter term

Losses (Net Income < 0):

• Unprofitable operations
• Action: Assess sustainability, require guarantee if persistent losses

Cash Flow Red Flags

Negative Operating Cash Flow:

• Burning cash from operations
• Action: Reject unless startup with equity financing

High Capex Relative to Cash Flow:

• Capital spending exceeds operating cash flow
• Action: Monitor liquidity, may indicate growth or distress

High Debt Service:

• Interest + principal payments exceed operating cash flow
• Action: Refinancing risk, require guarantee

Qualitative Red Flags

Frequent Address Changes:

• Moved multiple times in recent years
• Action: Flight risk, require larger deposit

Litigation / Judgments:

• Outstanding lawsuits or judgments
• Action: Assess materiality, may require guarantee

Tax Liens / Garnishments:

• Government claims against tenant
• Action: High default risk, reject or guarantee

Multiple Related-Party Transactions:

• Payments to owners/family members
• Action: May be masking profitability or siphoning cash

Customer Concentration:

• >50% of revenue from 1-2 customers
• Action: Loss of key customer = default risk

Use Case 1: New Tenant Application

Situation: Manufacturing company applies for 10,000 sf industrial space at $8/sf/year = $80,000/year rent. Submits 3 years of financial statements.

Analysis:

1. Calculate DSCR: NOI = $180,000, DSCR = $180,000 ÷ $80,000 = 2.25 (Strong)
2. Current Ratio: $420,000 ÷ $280,000 = 1.5 (Acceptable)
3. Debt-to-Equity: $500,000 ÷ $300,000 = 1.67 (Moderate)
4. Revenue trend: Year 1: $2M, Year 2: $2.2M, Year 3: $2.5M (Growing)
5. Profitability: Net margin = 9% (Healthy for manufacturing)

Output:

```

Credit Grade: B+

Security Recommendation: 3 months rent deposit ($20,000)

Lease Term: 5 years acceptable

Covenants: Annual financial statement requirement

Recommendation: APPROVE with standard security

```

Use Case 2: Startup Tenant

Situation: Technology startup (2 years old) applies for office space. Limited operating history, venture capital funded.

Analysis:

1. DSCR: Negative NOI (losses), DSCR = N/A
2. Current Ratio: $1.2M ÷ $300K = 4.0 (Strong liquidity from equity raise)
3. Debt-to-Equity: $300K ÷ $900K = 0.33 (Low leverage)
4. Cash burn: $50K/month, 24 months runway remaining
5. Venture backing: $2M Series A raised 6 months ago

Output:

```

Credit Grade: C- (early stage, unprofitable)

Security Recommendation:

- 12 months rent deposit ($120K), OR

- Personal guarantee from founders + 6 months deposit

Lease Term: 3 years maximum (matches runway)

Covenants: Quarterly financial statements, maintain $500K minimum cash balance

Recommendation: CONDITIONAL APPROVAL (require enhanced security)

```

Use Case 3: Renewal - Credit Deterioration

Situation: Existing tenant (8 years in building) requests 5-year renewal. Recent financials show declining performance.

Analysis:

1. DSCR: Was 2.5, now 1.3 (declining but still acceptable)
2. Current Ratio: Was 2.0, now 1.4 (tight liquidity)
3. Revenue: Declined 15% year-over-year
4. Net Income: Positive but down 40%
5. Management explanation: Lost major customer, rebuilding

Output:

```

Credit Grade: C+ (was B+, downgraded)

Security Recommendation:

- Increase deposit from 3 months to 6 months

- Add financial covenant: Maintain DSCR > 1.25

- Quarterly reporting requirement

Lease Term: 3 years (shorter than requested 5 years)

Rent: Below-market renewal to support recovery

Recommendation: APPROVE RENEWAL with enhanced security (better than vacancy)

```

Use Case 4: Corporate Guarantor Analysis

Situation: Tenant has weak credit (DSCR 1.1), but parent company offers corporate guarantee.

Analysis - Guarantor:

1. Parent DSCR: 3.5 (strong)
2. Parent Current Ratio: 2.2 (strong)
3. Parent Debt-to-Equity: 0.8 (conservative)
4. Parent Net Worth: $15M (> 10x annual rent)
5. Guarantee structure: Absolute and unconditional

Output:

```

Tenant Credit Grade: D

Guarantor Credit Grade: A-

Security Recommendation:

- Absolute and unconditional corporate guarantee from parent

- 3 months deposit (standard)

Lease Term: 5 years acceptable (based on guarantor strength)

Recommendation: APPROVE (rely on parent guarantee, not tenant)

```

This skill is automatically loaded when:

• User mentions: tenant credit, DSCR, financial analysis, credit risk, guarantee, security deposit
• Commands invoked: /tenant-credit, /default-analysis
• Reading files: financialstatement, balancesheet, incomestatement*

Related Commands:

• /tenant-credit - Full credit analysis with scoring and security recommendations
• /default-analysis - Assess default scenarios and landlord remedies

Example 1: Comprehensive Credit Analysis

Tenant: Acme Distribution Inc.

Space: 20,000 sf industrial warehouse

Proposed Rent: $10/sf/year = $200,000/year

Financial Data (Most Recent Year):

• Revenue: $5,000,000
• Gross Profit: $1,250,000 (25% margin)
• Operating Expenses: $900,000
• EBITDA: $350,000
• Net Income: $200,000
• Current Assets: $1,200,000
• Current Liabilities: $600,000
• Total Assets: $2,500,000
• Total Liabilities: $1,400,000
• Shareholders' Equity: $1,100,000

Ratio Analysis:

```

DSCR = $350,000 ÷ $200,000 = 1.75 ✓ (Acceptable, above 1.50 minimum)

Current Ratio = $1,200,000 ÷ $600,000 = 2.0 ✓ (Strong liquidity)

Debt-to-Equity = $1,400,000 ÷ $1,100,000 = 1.27 ✓ (Moderate leverage)

Working Capital = $1,200,000 - $600,000 = $600,000 ✓ (3x annual rent)

Operating Margin = $350,000 ÷ $5,000,000 = 7% (Typical for distribution)

ROE = $200,000 ÷ $1,100,000 = 18% ✓ (Strong return)

```

Trend Analysis (3 years):

• Revenue: $4.2M → $4.7M → $5.0M (Growing 6-8%/year)
• EBITDA Margin: 6.5% → 7.2% → 7.0% (Stable)
• Debt-to-Equity: 1.45 → 1.35 → 1.27 (Deleveraging)

Credit Decision:

```

Credit Grade: B+

Strengths:

• Strong DSCR (1.75x)
• Excellent liquidity (2.0 current ratio)
• Consistent revenue growth
• Deleveraging trend

Weaknesses:

• Moderate leverage (D/E 1.27)
• Industry-typical low margins

Security Recommendation: 3 months rent deposit ($50,000)

Lease Term: 5 years

Covenants: Annual financial statements, maintain DSCR > 1.25

Personal Guarantee: Not required

RECOMMENDATION: APPROVE

```

Example 2: Red Flag Analysis

Tenant: Struggling Retail Corp.

Financial Data:

• Revenue: Year 1: $2.5M, Year 2: $2.2M, Year 3: $1.8M (declining 15-20%/year)
• Net Income: Year 3: -$150,000 (loss)
• Current Ratio: 0.9 (current liabilities exceed current assets)
• Debt-to-Equity: 4.5 (highly leveraged)
• DSCR: N/A (negative EBITDA)
• Audit Opinion: Going Concern warning

Red Flags Identified:

1. Declining revenue (3 consecutive years)
2. Unprofitable (net loss)
3. Negative working capital (current ratio < 1.0)
4. Over-leveraged (D/E 4.5)
5. Going Concern warning (auditor doubts ability to continue)

Credit Decision:

```

Credit Grade: E (High Risk)

RECOMMENDATION: REJECT

Rationale:

• Insufficient cash flow to cover rent
• Insolvency risk (negative working capital)
• Auditor going concern warning
• Declining business trend

Alternative: Only consider if:

• Personal guarantee from solvent guarantor (net worth > $1M)
• 12 months rent deposit ($240K)
• Short-term lease (1 year)
• Above-market rent to compensate for risk

```

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Skill Version: 1.0

Last Updated: November 13, 2025

Related Skills: commercial-lease-expert, indemnity-expert, default-and-remedies-advisor, effective-rent-analyzer

Related Commands: /tenant-credit, /default-analysis, /recommendation-memo