market-sizing-analysis
🎯SkillHelps you estimate how big a business opportunity is, from the whole market down to the share a startup can realistically win. Useful for pitch decks, business plans and checking whether a new idea is worth pursuing.
Installation
npx skills add wshobson/agents --skill market-sizing-analysisRun it in a terminal; it asks which AI coding tools to install it for (Claude Code, Codex, Cursor and more).
Uses skills.sh · Node.js 22.20+
After installing
Ask for related work and the agent uses it on its own, or call it yourself.
/market-sizing-analysisInstall by hand
Copy the whole skill folder from GitHub to the place below. Copying only SKILL.md can leave out files the skill uses.
Open the skill folder →- This project
.claude/skills/market-sizing-analysis/ - All projects
~/.claude/skills/market-sizing-analysis/
These paths are for Claude Code. For other tools, the command above puts it in the right place.
What this skill does
Overview
This skill helps you estimate the size of a market for a startup or new product. It uses three layers: TAM is the money spent in the whole market, SAM is the part your product can actually serve, and SOM is the share you can realistically win in 3 to 5 years. It explains three ways to calculate these numbers.
Key Features
- Start from industry reports and narrow down to your market (top-down).
- Build an estimate from customer counts and prices, which investors find most convincing (bottom-up).
- Size a brand-new market from how much customers would pay to solve their problem.
- Pick the right method for a mature, niche or brand-new market.
- Read worked examples in a separate reference file when you need more detail.
Who is this for?
It is for founders preparing to raise money, write a business plan or test a new idea. You do not need a finance background. The skill explains each term and when to use each method.
Summarized by AI from this skill's SKILL.md. Suggest a better one
SKILL.md
View on GitHub →Calculate TAM/SAM/SOM for market opportunities using top-down, bottom-up, and value theory methodologies. Use this skill when sizing markets, estimating addressable revenue, validating market opportunity for a new venture, or building investor-ready market analysis for a startup pitch or business plan.
Market Sizing Analysis
Comprehensive market sizing methodologies for calculating Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for startup opportunities.
Overview
Market sizing provides the foundation for startup strategy, fundraising, and business planning. Calculate market opportunity using three complementary methodologies: top-down (industry reports), bottom-up (customer segment calculations), and value theory (willingness to pay).
Core Concepts
The Three-Tier Market Framework
TAM (Total Addressable Market)
- Total revenue opportunity if achieving 100% market share
- Defines the universe of potential customers
- Used for long-term vision and market validation
- Example: All email marketing software revenue globally
SAM (Serviceable Available Market)
- Portion of TAM targetable with current product/service
- Accounts for geographic, segment, or capability constraints
- Represents realistic addressable opportunity
- Example: AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce in North America
SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)
- Realistic market share achievable in 3-5 years
- Accounts for competition, resources, and market dynamics
- Used for financial projections and fundraising
- Example: 2-5% of SAM based on competitive landscape
When to Use Each Methodology
Top-Down Analysis
- Use when established market research exists
- Best for mature, well-defined markets
- Validates market existence and growth
- Starts with industry reports and narrows down
Bottom-Up Analysis
- Use when targeting specific customer segments
- Best for new or niche markets
- Most credible for investors
- Builds from customer data and pricing
Value Theory
- Use when creating new market categories
- Best for disruptive innovations
- Estimates based on value creation
- Calculates willingness to pay for problem solution
Detailed patterns and worked examples
Detailed pattern documentation lives in references/details.md. Read that file when the navigation tier above is insufficient.
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